When a new technology becomes fashionable, there is always the expectation of understanding what will happen after the initial hype subsides. Will it be a passing trend, like the metaverse—which went from being a supposed global revolution to a niche of technology—or the NFT market, which has lost 92% of its value over the past three years? Or, on the contrary, will it be an innovation that endures and generates long-term value, like the internet, thanks to the massive infrastructure investments left in the wake of the dot-com bubble?
In my opinion, one of the reasons technologies have advanced so rapidly in the financial world in recent years is that three major technological milestones are converging simultaneously. Although they are at different stages of maturity, they are generating catalytic synergies, as if they were pressing the accelerator's pedal of innovation. Are they here to stay?
First, there is the resilient and steady digitalization of the banking industry. According to the World Bank, thanks to this process, the percentage of adults with a bank account worldwide increased from 51% in 2011 to 79% this year.
Second, cryptocurrencies. Despite the numerous scandals involving various crypto exchanges and the technological failures behind many altcoins, which have raised doubts about their long-term viability, they are beginning to establish their permanence. Some examples include:
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The high adoption rates in countries such as Australia, the United Arab Emirates, and Singapore (where it is estimated that over 20% of adults hold crypto assets).
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The approval of crypto ETFs (Exchange-Traded Funds) in the United States, Canada, and several European nations.
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The growing attention of central banks to blockchain and tokenization projects, as highlighted by Andrea M. Maechler, Deputy General Manager of the Bank for International Settlements (BIS), during the Point Zero Forum in Zurich, which I had the privilege of attending.
The third major force is artificial intelligence. Although its rise has been accompanied by multi-billion-dollar valuations of startups with limited revenue, raising suspicions of a potential bubble, its technological impact is undeniable, and investments in its development are enormous: Nvidia allocated USD 100 billion to AI, and Alphabet gave USD 75 billion.
Now, let us imagine the possibility of combining these three technologies. Today, a person can open an account with a neobank, register on stock investment platforms or crypto exchanges, and begin operating within minutes. Furthermore, they will soon be able to optimize the entire experience with an artificial intelligence agent capable of operating with minimal human intervention.
But what role remains for governments and tax authorities? Technology itself has no moral compass: it is a tool that can serve both those who wish to do good and those who seek harm. And in many cases, the latter have more resources and face fewer obstacles in evading the law.
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